Belfast rally demands return of British flag

BELFAST (Reuters) - Around 2,000 pro-British loyalists rallied in central Belfast on Saturday for the return of the British flag to the roof of city hall after a vote by Irish nationalist councilors to remove it sparked a week of rioting.

Twenty-eight police officers have been injured in the most widespread pro-British street violence for years in the province as the flag became a rallying point for people who feel there have been too many concessions to Irish nationalists.

Rioters fired bricks and petrol bombs at police and burned out cars overnight, hours after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for calm during a visit to the city and warned the peace process was not yet complete.

Loyalist political parties, who share the protesters' desire to remain part of the United Kingdom, condemned the rioting as did the Irish nationalist parties who they share power with.

Around 2,000 people gathered outside the imposing 19th century Baroque city hall, most waving British flags and many hiding their faces with balaclavas or scarves, prompting some local businesses in the area to close.

'NO SURRENDER'

The crowd cheered when one protester burned an Irish tricolour flag and sang the British national anthem before dispersing. Banners declared "Proud to be British" and "No Surrender."

"This goes on until the flag is back above city hall," said protester William Arthur. "Ulster is British and we will not stand for this".

Hundreds of riot police stood by, but did not intervene.

One police officer was injured during trouble in East Belfast as some of the crowd returned home, police said.

Assistant Chief Constable Will Kerr of the Senior Police Service of Northern Ireland said the disorder orchestrated by loyalist paramilitary groups was putting lives at risk.

"I am urging everyone to be calm, take a step back," he said.

LOYALIST FEARS

At least 3,600 people were killed over three decades as Catholic nationalists seeking union with Ireland fought British security forces and mainly Protestant loyalists determined to remain part of the United Kingdom.

A 1998 peace accord has mostly held, although militant nationalists have stepped up attacks in recent years and community relations remain fragile, with riots erupting every few months.

Monday's council decision means the British flag will be flown over city hall on 17 designated days including public holidays each year, as is the case at the provincial assembly at Stormont in the British-controlled province.

Until then, it had flown above the provincial capital's city hall every day since it opened a century ago, a symbol for many Catholic nationalists of Protestant domination.

Its removal has turned the tables, sparking fears of growing nationalist power.

"It's not just that the flag has come down, loyalists really sense that everything is about concessions," said Peter Shirlow, professor of conflict transformation at Queen's University. "Rightly or wrongly they sense that this is a one way process."

The violence, he said, was a sign that while loyalist paramilitaries have not in the past reacted violently to killings by dissident Irish nationalists, they may in future.

"It's a sign that it's getting harder to maintain the peace process within loyalism," he said. "Whether that breaks down is a different matter, but I think it's harder to hold the line."

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U.S. trade-human rights link tests Obama-Russia ties

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate's passage of legislation to punish Russians who violate human rights is the first big test of the resolve of Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama to improve relations since their election victories.

Obama, who launched a "reset" in relations with Russia less than four years ago, is likely to sign the law even though Moscow sees it as "aggressively unfriendly." Damage to U.S.-Russian relations is all but inevitable.

But there are signs that Putin, who won the presidency despite the biggest protests of his 13-year rule, may want to put the bad blood of a campaign in which he whipped up anti-American sentiment behind him.

"I do not think that this will lead to a serious crisis in Russian-American relations," said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre think tank.

"(Putin) does not intend to make relations worse, and for this reason the effects of this legislation will be limited," Trenin said.

The Senate approved the "Magnitsky Act" as part of a broader bill to lift a Cold War-era restriction and grant Russia "permanent normal trade relations, " or PNTR, a move that in other circumstances would have been celebrated in both capitals.

A month after Obama's re-election, it could have been the cap on a period during which he signed a landmark nuclear arms deal with Moscow and helped usher Russia into the World Trade Organization after an 18-year membership bid.

Instead, Moscow is furious over the human rights portion of the bill, an unmistakable message to Putin of displeasure with the treatment of Russians who dare challenge the authorities.

The main targets are those allegedly involved in the abuse and death of Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in jail in 2009 - the victim, colleagues say, of retribution from the same investigators he claimed stole $230 million from the state.

In a Foreign Ministry statement full of righteous anger, Russia called the Senate vote a "performance in the theatre of the absurd" and said the bill would badly cloud the prospects for cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

How big the impact will be is largely up to Putin.

The law injects a dose of poison into a relationship strained by the crisis in Syria and U.S. concerns about the direction Putin has taken since he revealed last year that he would return to the Kremlin after a stint as prime minister.

"It will have a negative impact on the atmosphere, that's for sure," said Samuel Charap, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington.

The bill directs Obama to publish the names of Russians allegedly involved in the abuse and death of Magnitsky, who was jailed in 2008 on tax evasion and fraud charges colleagues say were fabricated by investigators against whom he had given evidence.

Magnitsky, 37, said he was deliberately deprived of the treatment he needed as his health deteriorated painfully in jail, and the Kremlin's own human rights council has said he was probably beaten to death.

The bill would also require the United States to deny visas and freeze the assets of any of those individuals, as well as other human rights violators in Russia not linked to Magnitsky, on a continuing basis.

It is, at least in Russian eyes, almost a textbook example of what Putin dislikes most about the United States: its perceived use of human rights concerns as a geopolitical instrument and the resort to sanctions for punishment.

In a decree signed hours after his inauguration to a six-year third term in May, Putin said he wanted "truly strategic" ties with the United States but they must be based on equality, non-interference and respect for one another's interests.

MUTUAL DOUBTS

Trenin said the law would reinforce Putin's wariness about U.S. intentions, but that he may also want to focus on his long-stated goal of improving economic ties with the United States.

Russia has sought to reassure Americans that Moscow's response to the bill would not affect business dealings.

But late on Friday, Russia imposed restrictions on meat imports from several countries, chief among them the United States, denying the move was a political retribution for the "Magnitsky Act".

In a joint statement on Saturday, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Russia's new requirement for imported beef and pork to be certified free of ractopamine, a feed additive used in the U.S. meat industry but banned in some other countries, appeared to be a violation of Moscow's WTO obligations.

"The United States calls on Russia to suspend these new measures and restore market access for U.S. beef and pork products," Kirk and Vilsack said.

"The United States sought, and Russia committed as part of its WTO accession package, to ensure that it adhere rigorously to WTO requirements and that it would use international (food safety) standards unless it had a risk assessment to justify use of a more stringent standard," they said.

On Saturday, the daily Kommersant reported that the passage of the legislation may freeze the work of some of the 20-plus groups that are part of the bilateral presidential commission set up between Obama and former President Dmitry Medvedev.

The Magnitsky Act is the flip side of the bill to grant Russia PNTR status, which both sides hope, along with Russia's WTO membership, will bolster bilateral trade, which amounted to a paltry $43 billion last year.

"There's a lot that can be done on that, and that is stuff he understands and cares about," Charap said of Putin.

Russia has threatened to retaliate if Obama signs the bill into law. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday that Russia would bar entry for Americans "guilty of crude human rights abuses."

Moscow has also warned it would respond with "asymmetrical" measures, seeming to hint the bill could have a spillover effect into broader areas in which the United States wants Russian cooperation most, such as nuclear arms control and Iran.

But analysts said that was unlikely. They said the law would probably not derail Russian assistance on Afghanistan, or affect diplomacy aimed to curb Iran's nuclear program or deepen disputes over U.S. missile defense and the conflict in Syria.

"It will have a mostly symbolic effect," said Yevgeny Volk, a Russian political analyst.

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Romanians vote in poll that may reopen political spat

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania's prime minister is heading for victory in parliamentary elections on Sunday that could set off another round of a power struggle with the rightist president and complicate talks for a new IMF deal.

Prime Minister Victor Ponta's leftist Social Liberal Union (USL) will win most votes and possibly a clear majority, according to opinion polls. But analysts say President Traian Basescu may use his powers to ask one of his own allies to try to form a government.

Any prolonged period without a new administration in place would unnerve markets and raise questions about how the country would obtain a new International Monetary Fund deal once the current agreement expires in early 2013.

The leu fell to a record low against the euro in August, during an attempt by Ponta to remove the conservative Basescu from office, using tactics which the European Union and United States said undermined the rule of law.

At the time, Basescu said he would never again name Ponta as prime minister. Last week, he said only that he would appoint someone in the best interests of the country.

One possibility would be for Basescu to ask someone other than Ponta from within the Social Liberal Union to become prime minister, using the argument that the USL is not a party, but rather a coalition of different political groups, according to analysts.

If the USL falls short of a majority, he could also ask one of his allies from the Right Romania Alliance (ARD) - in second place in polls with about 20 percent - to try to form a coalition.

"Even if Ponta is elected by voters and nominated by Basescu with a secure majority, scope for damaging discord with Basescu in the medium term remains," said James Goundry, an analyst with IHS Global Insight.

The USL has scored at least 57 percent in three opinion polls published in December.

The former communist country has made progress in some areas since the 1989 revolution that overthrew communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, but lags regional peers Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic and struggles to supply running water and reliable electricity to some of its 19 million people.

Long-term reforms such as privatizations and an overhaul of the health sector have failed to materialize, as the economy struggles to recover from a deep recession.

Romania's complicated electoral system - combining constituencies and proportional representation - favors large parties. The USL has benefited from disenchantment with Basescu and the previous government which pushed through unpopular austerity measures such as salary cuts and higher sales tax.

Less than half of the electorate is likely to vote, according to analysts, due to a deep dissatisfaction with Romania's political class that many voters view as corrupt.

"Romania's political class is all horrible," said Anton Popescu, who lives off a pension of 900 lei ($250) each month. "I have no hope for better times after the election, I just hope it won't be worse than it already is."

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